Development of a prognostic model of COVID-19 severity: a population-based cohort study in Iceland.

BACKGROUND: The severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection varies from asymptomatic state to severe respiratory failure and the clinical course is difficult to predict. The aim of the study was to develop a prognostic model to predict the severity of COVID-19 in unvaccinated adults at the time of diagnosis. METHODS: All SARS-CoV-2-positive adults in Iceland were prospectively enrolled into a telehealth service at diagnosis. A multivariable proportional-odds logistic regression model was derived from information obtained during the enrollment interview of those diagnosed between February 27 and December 31, 2020 who met the inclusion criteria. Outcomes were defined on an ordinal scale: (1) no need for escalation of care during follow-up; (2) need for urgent care visit; (3) hospitalization; and (4) admission to intensive care unit (ICU) or death. Missing data were multiply imputed using chained equations and the model was internally validated using bootstrapping techniques. Decision curve analysis was performed. RESULTS: The prognostic model was derived from 4756 SARS-CoV-2-positive persons. In total, 375 (7.9%) only required urgent care visits, 188 (4.0%) were hospitalized and 50 (1.1%) were either admitted to ICU or died due to complications of COVID-19. The model included age, sex, body mass index (BMI), current smoking, underlying conditions, and symptoms and clinical severity score at enrollment. On internal validation, the optimism-corrected Nagelkerke's R2 was 23.4% (95%CI, 22.7-24.2), the C-statistic was 0.793 (95%CI, 0.789-0.797) and the calibration slope was 0.97 (95%CI, 0.96-0.98). Outcome-specific indices were for urgent care visit or worse (calibration intercept -0.04 [95%CI, -0.06 to -0.02], Emax 0.014 [95%CI, 0.008-0.020]), hospitalization or worse (calibration intercept -0.06 [95%CI, -0.12 to -0.03], Emax 0.018 [95%CI, 0.010-0.027]), and ICU admission or death (calibration intercept -0.10 [95%CI, -0.15 to -0.04] and Emax 0.027 [95%CI, 0.013-0.041]). CONCLUSION: Our prognostic model can accurately predict the later need for urgent outpatient evaluation, hospitalization, and ICU admission and death among unvaccinated SARS-CoV-2-positive adults in the general population at the time of diagnosis, using information obtained by telephone interview.

Clinical spectrum of coronavirus disease 2019 in Iceland: population based cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To characterise the symptoms of coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19). DESIGN: Population based cohort study. SETTING: Iceland. PARTICIPANTS: All individuals who tested positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) between 17 March and 30 April 2020. Cases were identified by three testing strategies: targeted testing guided by clinical suspicion, open invitation population screening based on self referral, and random population screening. All identified cases were enrolled in a telehealth monitoring service, and symptoms were systematically monitored from diagnosis to recovery. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Occurrence of one or more of 19 predefined symptoms during follow-up. RESULTS: Among 1564 people positive for SARS-CoV-2, the most common presenting symptoms were myalgia (55%), headache (51%), and non-productive cough (49%). At the time of diagnosis, 83 (5.3%) individuals reported no symptoms, of whom 49 (59%) remained asymptomatic during follow-up. At diagnosis, 216 (14%) and 349 (22%) people did not meet the case definition of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization, respectively. Most (67%) of the SARS-CoV-2-positive patients had mild symptoms throughout the course of their disease. CONCLUSION: In the setting of broad access to RT-PCR testing, most SARS-CoV-2-positive people were found to have mild symptoms. Fever and dyspnoea were less common than previously reported. A substantial proportion of SARS-CoV-2-positive people did not meet recommended case definitions at the time of diagnosis.

Kidney Transplant Outcomes in Patients With Adenine Phosphoribosyltransferase Deficiency.

BACKGROUND: Adenine phosphoribosyltransferase (APRT) deficiency is a rare, hereditary cause of kidney stones and chronic kidney disease (CKD) which is characterized by 2,8-dihydroxyadenine renal parenchymal crystal deposition. The aim of this study was to examine outcomes of kidney transplantation in APRT deficiency patients. METHODS: Included were 13 patients in the APRT Deficiency Registry of the Rare Kidney Stone Consortium, 2 from Westmead Hospital in Sydney, Australia, and 2 from Necker Hospital in Paris, France. The CKD-EPI and CKiD equations were used to calculate glomerular filtration rate estimates. Allograft survival was analyzed employing the Kaplan-Meier method. The Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test was used to compare alllograft outcomes according to xanthine oxidoreductase (XOR) inhibitor treatment status at transplantation. RESULTS: Seventeen patients (9 females) received 22 kidney transplants. Age at first transplantation was 47.2 (14.9-67.0) years. Ten patients received XOR inhibitor therapy pretransplant (11 allografts), while 8 patients did not receive such treatment before transplantation (11 allografts). Two-year allograft survival was 91% and 55% in the 2 groups, respectively (P = 0.16). The median (range) estimated glomerular filtration rate at 2 years posttransplant was 61.3 (24.0-90.0) mL/min/1.73 m when XOR inhibitor therapy was initiated before transplantation, and 16.2 (10.0-39.0) mL/min/1.73 m (P = 0.009) when such treatment was not administered pretransplant. CONCLUSIONS: Kidney allograft outcomes are good in APRT deficiency patients beginning XOR inhibitor therapy pretransplant. Delay in such treatment is a major cause of premature graft loss in these patients. Increased awareness among clinicians is imperative, promoting early diagnosis of APRT deficiency and pharmacotherapy initiation before kidney transplantation.

Long-term renal outcomes of APRT deficiency presenting in childhood.

BACKGROUND: Adenine phosphoribosyltransferase (APRT) deficiency is a hereditary purine metabolism disorder that causes kidney stones and chronic kidney disease (CKD). The purpose of this study was to examine the course of APRT deficiency in patients who presented in childhood. METHODS: The disease course of 21 (35%) patients in the APRT Deficiency Registry of the Rare Kidney Stone Consortium, who presented with manifestations of APRT deficiency and/or were diagnosed with the disorder before the age of 18 years, was studied. The effect of pharmacotherapy on renal manifestations and outcomes was thoroughly assessed. RESULTS: Fourteen children were placed on allopurinol, 100 (25-200) mg/day, at the age of 2.6 (0.6-16.5) years. Six of these patients had experienced kidney stone events and three had developed acute kidney injury (AKI) prior to allopurinol treatment. During 18.9 (1.7-31.5) years of pharmacotherapy, stones occurred in two patients and AKI in three. Six adult patients started allopurinol treatment, 200 (100-300) mg/day, at age 29.8 (20.5-42.4) years. Five of these patients had experienced 28 stone episodes and AKI had occurred in two. Stone recurrence occurred in four patients and AKI in two during 11.2 (4.2-19.6) years of allopurinol therapy. Lack of adherence and insufficient dosing contributed to stone recurrence and AKI during pharmacotherapy. At latest follow-up, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was 114 (70-163) and 62 (10-103) mL/min/1.73 m2 in those who initiated treatment as children and adults, respectively. All three patients with CKD stages 3-5 at the last follow-up were adults when pharmacotherapy was initiated. CONCLUSION: Timely diagnosis and treatment of APRT deficiency decreases renal complications and preserves kidney function.

Sequence variants associating with urinary biomarkers.

Urine dipstick tests are widely used in routine medical care to diagnose kidney and urinary tract and metabolic diseases. Several environmental factors are known to affect the test results, whereas the effects of genetic diversity are largely unknown. We tested 32.5 million sequence variants for association with urinary biomarkers in a set of 150 274 Icelanders with urine dipstick measurements. We detected 20 association signals, of which 14 are novel, associating with at least one of five clinical entities defined by the urine dipstick: glucosuria, ketonuria, proteinuria, hematuria and urine pH. These include three independent glucosuria variants at SLC5A2, the gene encoding the sodium-dependent glucose transporter (SGLT2), a protein targeted pharmacologically to increase urinary glucose excretion in the treatment of diabetes. Two variants associating with proteinuria are in LRP2 and CUBN, encoding the co-transporters megalin and cubilin, respectively, that mediate proximal tubule protein uptake. One of the hematuria-associated variants is a rare, previously unreported 2.5 kb exonic deletion in COL4A3. Of the four signals associated with urine pH, we note that the pH-increasing alleles of two variants (POU2AF1, WDR72) associate significantly with increased risk of kidney stones. Our results reveal that genetic factors affect variability in urinary biomarkers, in both a disease dependent and independent context.

Kidney Disease in Adenine Phosphoribosyltransferase Deficiency.

BACKGROUND: Adenine phosphoribosyltransferase (APRT) deficiency is a purine metabolism disorder causing kidney stones and chronic kidney disease (CKD). The course of nephrolithiasis and CKD has not been well characterized. The objective of this study was to examine long-term kidney outcomes in patients with APRT deficiency. STUDY DESIGN: An observational cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: All patients enrolled in the APRT Deficiency Registry of the Rare Kidney Stone Consortium. OUTCOMES: Kidney stones, acute kidney injury (AKI), stage of CKD, end-stage renal disease, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and changes in eGFR. MEASUREMENTS: Serum creatinine and eGFR calculated using creatinine-based equations. RESULTS: Of 53 patients, 30 (57%) were females and median age at diagnosis was 37.0 (range, 0.6-67.9) years. Median duration of follow-up was 10.3 (range, 0.0-31.5) years. At diagnosis, kidney stones had developed in 29 (55%) patients and 20 (38%) had CKD stages 3 to 5, including 11 (21%) patients with stage 5. At latest follow-up, 33 (62%) patients had experienced kidney stones; 18 (34%), AKI; and 22 (42%), CKD stages 3 to 5. Of 14 (26%) patients with stage 5 CKD, 12 had initiated renal replacement therapy. Kidney stones recurred in 18 of 33 (55%) patients. The median eGFR slope was -0.38 (range, -21.99 to 1.42) mL/min/1.73m(2) per year in patients receiving treatment with an xanthine dehydrogenase inhibitor and -5.74 (range, -75.8 to -0.10) mL/min/1.73m(2) per year in those not treated prior to the development of stage 5 CKD (P=0.001). LIMITATIONS: Use of observational registry data. CONCLUSIONS: Progressive CKD and AKI episodes are major features of APRT deficiency, whereas nephrolithiasis is the most common presentation. Advanced CKD without a history of kidney stones is more prevalent than previously reported. Our data suggest that timely therapy may retard CKD progression.